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Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Huatai Securities: The countercyclical adjustment is stronger than expected, and the expansion of domestic demand may fall on the policy of boosting consumption. Huatai Securities believes that the macro-policy orientation conveyed by the Central Economic Work Conference is more positive, in fiscal policy (expanding deficit, increasing special national debt, expanding the use scope of special debt, etc.), monetary policy (moderately easing, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates), real estate and capital market (stabilizing the property market and stock market), and expanding domestic demand policy (implementing special actions to boost consumption) In terms of currency securities, Huatai Securities believes that there is still room for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current real interest rate level is still high in horizontal comparison; On the other hand, credit expansion, especially the balance sheet expansion of developers and local governments, is relatively weak, and the cost of capital has room for further decline. It is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by 30-50 basis points next year, but the pace may be affected by external changes and exchange rates.Thailand's finance minister said that Thailand is expected to levy the lowest corporate tax in the world from January 2025.

Market News: The motion of impeaching South Korean President Yin Xiyue was reported to the South Korean National Assembly.Institution: In the third quarter, the price and shipment of the large-capacity enterprise-level solid-state disk industry rose simultaneously. According to the latest survey of TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the strong demand for AI applications continued to drive the growth of the Enterprise SSD industry in the third quarter of 2024. As the supplier's shipment could not meet the market demand, the price rose, pushing up the overall revenue of the industry by nearly 30%. Due to the arrival of NVIDIA (NVIDIA) H series products, and the peak demand for Training AI Server, especially the strong demand for large-capacity products, the overall purchase order capacity increased by 15% quarter.India's NIFTY50 index fell 1% to 24,301.30 points, and India's SENSEX index fell 1% to 80,476.70 points.

German authorities predict that the German economy will stagnate in 2025. On the 12th, local time, Kiel Institute for World Economics, one of the authoritative German economic research institutes, released a winter forecast, predicting that the German GDP will stagnate in 2025, neither increasing nor decreasing, which is 0.5% lower than the previous autumn forecast. Germany's GDP will shrink by 0.2% in 2024, compared with the previous autumn forecast of 0.1%. The agency believes that Germany's potential signs of weak economic growth are emerging, not only facing the foreseeable impact of the US tariff increase, but also the domestic industrial crisis is intensifying. (CCTV Finance)Tesla Customer Service responded to the declaration of Cyberpickup truck in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: If it can be listed in China in the future, it will be known to all. On December 11th, Tesla Cybertruck electric pickup truck completed the declaration of automobile energy consumption measurement in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. However, on the 11th, the latest data on the China automobile energy consumption inquiry page of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the energy consumption calculation declaration of Tesla Cybertruck electric pickup truck was also invalid on December 11th. Tesla staff responded that the policy of Cyberpickup driving in China is favorable at present, but it cannot be achieved for the time being. If it can be listed in the China market in the future, the official will announce it on the whole network.Wang Tao of UBS: It is estimated that deficit ratio will approach 4% of its financial resources or increase its investment in social security medical care next year. Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist of UBS, said that China's fiscal deficit ratio is expected to approach 4% next year, and the scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds excluding capital injection into state-owned banks may be 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of new local government special bonds may be 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. In fact, the fiscal expansion next year is relatively mild compared with the fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009. Wang Tao believes that next year, the government will increase investment in social security and medical care, and establish a more perfect social security system while boosting residents' confidence in the short term.